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UPBD

Upbound GroupB
Nasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Brigit's subscriber and ARPU growth, improving Acima charge-offs and margins, and Q2 free cash flow could support a higher valuation if they persist. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Acima's Q2 revenue fell approximately 2.5% year over year; weaker lease performance could erode the reported charge-off and margin gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
23
Value
71
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $16.00 · Bull $23.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.50
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d +2.5
Value71 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -6.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Acima's Q2 revenue fell approximately 2.5% year over year; weaker lease performance could erode the reported charge-off and margin gains. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • Cross-segment benefits from the new COO and Brigit leadership roles remain prospective, not observed operating results. [#8-K-2026-09-22] Company leadership announcement
  • • Acima revenue contracted despite better portfolio quality, and weaker customer payment behavior could reverse charge-off gains.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Declared fourth-quarter dividend

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
23
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+6.9
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.2
Δ21d
-16.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 23.4 / Value 71.2 / Sentiment 48.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$990.51M
Beta
1.90
Shares Out
58.3M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
0.22
P/FCF (TTM)
18.69
Rev YoY
+0.5%
EPS YoY
+39.2%
Gross Margin
+33.4%
Op Margin
+7.5%
Net Debt
$1.74B
Current Ratio
3.13
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data