B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
UPBD
Upbound GroupBNasdaq / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Brigit's strong growth, improving Acima loss metrics, positive Rent-A-Center same-store sales, and cash generation could gradually improve earnings mix and justify upside toward the available $28.25 median target indication.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.4.
What can break
Acima remains exposed to lease charge-offs, underwriting pressure, and fraud or cybersecurity losses.
Momentum
44
Value
71
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $22.00 · Bull $28.00 · Bear $16.50Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.25
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d +2.7
Value71 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +7.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acima remains exposed to lease charge-offs, underwriting pressure, and fraud or cybersecurity losses.
- • No post-earnings analyst estimate, rating, or price-target revisions are available.
- • The Q2 print was mixed rather than decisively bullish: revenue guidance narrowed, Acima volume declined, and consumer demand and fraud-control risks remain [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-31].
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Q2 earnings follow-through
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+15.7
Value
71
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.4
Δ21d
+7.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 44.0 / Value 71.2 / Sentiment 70.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.13B
Beta
1.90
Shares Out
58.3M
P/E (TTM)
12.0
P/S (TTM)
0.22
P/FCF (TTM)
18.69
Rev YoY
+0.5%
EPS YoY
+39.2%
Gross Margin
+33.4%
Op Margin
+7.5%
Net Debt
$1.74B
Current Ratio
3.13
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data