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UNP

Union PacificC
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes continued freight-volume recovery, successful execution of capex productivity improvements, and sustained pricing power leading to realization of high-end analyst targets near $307.65 within 12 months.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.2.
What can break
Margin pressure from higher fuel/labor costs
Momentum
76
Value
50
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $261.81 · Bull $307.65 · Bear $215.00Analysis 2026-02-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $332.70
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -7.2
Value50 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +6.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Margin pressure from higher fuel/labor costs
  • • Regulatory or network disruption increasing transit costs
  • • Bear case assumes weaker freight demand or margin pressure from fuel/labor costs, driving the stock toward low analyst targets near $215.00 and multiple compression.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Operational/guidance update (cost, fuel, network performance)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.2
Δ21d
+11.6
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
54
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
+6.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 75.9 / Value 50.0 / Sentiment 53.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$307.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$261.81
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$178.16B
Beta
0.99
Shares Out
594.08M
P/E (TTM)
19.7
P/S (TTM)
5.61
P/FCF (TTM)
49.41
Rev YoY
+11.5%
EPS YoY
+6.4%
Gross Margin
+45.5%
Op Margin
+39.9%
Net Debt
$31.3B
Current Ratio
0.99
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data