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UNP

Union PacificD
NYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case assumes continued freight-volume recovery, successful execution of capex productivity improvements, and sustained pricing power leading to realization of high-end analyst targets near $307.65 within 12 months.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.
What can break
Margin pressure from higher fuel/labor costs
Momentum
75
Value
49
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $261.81 · Bull $307.65 · Bear $215.00Analysis 2026-02-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $331.04
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +9.5
Value49 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -0.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Margin pressure from higher fuel/labor costs
  • • Regulatory or network disruption increasing transit costs
  • • Bear case assumes weaker freight demand or margin pressure from fuel/labor costs, driving the stock toward low analyst targets near $215.00 and multiple compression.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Operational/guidance update (cost, fuel, network performance)

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.5
Δ21d
+24.4
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-13.1
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 75.0 / Value 49.0 / Sentiment 43.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$307.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$261.81
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$215.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$173.99B
Beta
0.99
Shares Out
594.08M
P/E (TTM)
19.7
P/S (TTM)
5.61
P/FCF (TTM)
49.41
Rev YoY
+11.5%
EPS YoY
+6.4%
Gross Margin
+45.5%
Op Margin
+39.9%
Net Debt
$31.3B
Current Ratio
0.99
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data