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UNFI

United Natural FoodsA
NYSE / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The earnings print showed strong profitability and cash-flow improvement: adjusted EBITDA rose 48.3% in Q4, fiscal-year adjusted EBITDA rose 27%, and fiscal 2027 guidance calls for high-single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth. Natural sales increased 6.6% in Q4, and new customer onboarding could support a return to revenue growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.
What can break
Analyst revisions, target changes, and independently attributed post-earnings market reaction are not available.
Momentum
39
Value
62
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $53.25 · Bull $62.00 · Bear $38.00Analysis 2026-09-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-08 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $53.88
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d -1.4
Value62 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +5.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst revisions, target changes, and independently attributed post-earnings market reaction are not available.
  • • Fiscal 2027 guidance depends on completing network optimization and converting new customer onboarding into revenue growth.
  • • Consolidated Q4 sales declined 0.7%, including an approximately 500-basis-point impact from planned optimization actions; conventional sales fell 8.6% and retail sales fell 7.9%.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

FY2027 EBITDA guidance supports post-earnings re-rating

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
+4.0
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.8
Δ21d
+7.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 38.6 / Value 62.3 / Sentiment 83.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$53.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-08
Market Cap
$2.91B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
60.52M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
34.8
P/S (TTM)
0.06
P/FCF (TTM)
5.89
Rev YoY
-4.2%
EPS YoY
-554.9%
Gross Margin
+12.5%
Op Margin
+0.9%
Net Debt
$1.83B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data