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UNFI

United Natural FoodsB
NYSE / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Profitability, service levels and cash generation improved materially despite planned sales exits. Natural-segment sales grew 6.6% in Q4 while adjusted EBITDA rose 48.3%, and fiscal 2027 guidance implies continued EBITDA growth.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.
What can break
Conventional-segment sales declined 8.6% in fiscal Q4, creating risk that network optimization masks persistent customer or volume weakness.
Momentum
46
Value
63
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $50.00 · Bull $61.00 · Bear $35.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $54.00
Why
Momentum46 · Δ7d +12.3
Value63 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +2.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Conventional-segment sales declined 8.6% in fiscal Q4, creating risk that network optimization masks persistent customer or volume weakness.
  • • Fiscal 2027 guidance depends on new customer onboarding, improved service metrics and productivity translating into reported revenue and EBITDA growth.
  • • Total Q4 sales still declined 0.7%, conventional sales fell 8.6% and retail sales fell 7.9%.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-15

Post-earnings estimate and target revisions

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
46
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.3
Δ21d
+13.3
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
-11.6
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 45.6 / Value 63.0 / Sentiment 60.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.83B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
60.32M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
33.9
P/S (TTM)
0.06
P/FCF (TTM)
5.89
Rev YoY
-4.2%
EPS YoY
-554.9%
Gross Margin
+12.5%
Op Margin
+0.9%
Net Debt
$1.83B
Current Ratio
1.33
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data