B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
UMC
United MicroelectronicsDNYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Stronger-than-expected cyclical recovery drives higher utilization of mature-node capacity, margin expansion and rerating; limited near-term upside vs. anchor keeps rating cautious.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
What can break
Execution risk on capex and node migration
Momentum
60
Value
63
Sentiment
23
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.85 · Bull $11.50 · Bear $5.00Analysis 2026-02-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $14.24
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -28.8
Value63 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment23 · Δ7d +0.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-25.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk on capex and node migration
- • Geopolitical/export constraints affecting access
- • Prolonged oversupply, weaker end-market demand, or pricing pressure compresses margins and pushes consensus toward the low range materially below the anchor.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Quarterly earnings & guidance (estimated)
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
60
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-28.8
Δ21d
-31.8
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
23
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
+0.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 60.1 / Value 62.6 / Sentiment 22.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$9.85
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$5.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$47.23B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
2.51B
P/E (TTM)
15.2
P/S (TTM)
2.59
P/FCF (TTM)
13.43
Rev YoY
+14.3%
EPS YoY
+364.3%
Gross Margin
+28.6%
Op Margin
+18.9%
Net Debt
-$1.57B
Current Ratio
2.17
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data