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UFCS

United Fire GroupB
Nasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print supports a constructive thesis: record net income and net written premium, a 95.3% combined ratio, 13.2% six-month ROE, and higher investment income indicate improving earnings quality and operating execution. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
Catastrophe-loss normalization could make future reported comparisons less favorable. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
Momentum
69
Value
67
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $58.50 · Bull $65.00 · Bear $45.00Analysis 2026-08-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $58.50
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d -1.2
Value67 · Δ7d +9.1
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catastrophe-loss normalization could make future reported comparisons less favorable. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]
  • • Forward visibility is limited by medium coverage and incomplete analyst-consensus data.
  • • Reported underwriting improvement benefited from lower catastrophe losses; the underlying combined ratio increased slightly to 92.6% and the underwriting expense ratio rose to 35.4%.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-04

Q2 earnings delivered a strong operating print

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-6.1
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.1
Δ21d
+9.1
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-4.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 69.3 / Value 66.5 / Sentiment 66.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$58.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.37B
Beta
0.46
Shares Out
25.71M
P/E (TTM)
8.6
P/S (TTM)
0.68
P/FCF (TTM)
3.29
Rev YoY
+14.0%
EPS YoY
+48.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+12.8%
Net Debt
$10.64M
Current Ratio
0.41
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data