UFCS

United Fire GroupB

Nasdaq / Insurance

At close

2026-07-20

Current thesis

Sustained combined-ratio improvement, conservative reserve development, and modest capital returns could drive multiple expansion; this is a lower-probability outcome given consensus positioning.

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

What can break

Adverse reserve development from prior accident years

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $36.43 · Bull $44.35 · Bear $30.89

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-20

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-20 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-02-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-20

Supporting evidence

What

Grade B · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $51.00

Why

Momentum73 · Δ7d -9.3

Value59 · Δ7d -0.1

Sentiment35 · Δ7d -1.2

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-9.3

Δ21d

-9.8

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

-0.1

Δ21d

+0.6

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-1.2

Δ21d

+0.4

Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 73.4 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 35.1

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-20

Market Cap

$1.32B

Beta

0.46

Shares Out

25.66M

P/E (TTM)

8.6

P/S (TTM)

0.68

P/FCF (TTM)

3.29

Rev YoY

+11.6%

EPS YoY

+70.7%

Gross Margin

Op Margin

+11.1%

Net Debt

$10.64M

Current Ratio

0.40

As of 2026-07-20 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology