B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
UA
Under ArmourCNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The $4.68 anchor price stands about 29% below the packet's $6.0235 mean and median target, while inventory declined 3% and management protected profitability despite weaker revenue. The CFO's approximately $100,181 open-market purchase on August 11 is a modest alignment signal, though it does not validate operating improvement [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-12].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
What can break
Continued North American demand contraction and weak full-price sell-through.
Momentum
22
Value
37
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.25 · Bull $6.50 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-09-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $5.96
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -5.0
Value37 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment70 · Δ7d +2.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continued North American demand contraction and weak full-price sell-through.
- • Further weakness in DTC, eCommerce, or footwear revenue.
- • North American, DTC, eCommerce, and footwear declines indicate broad demand weakness.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-06
Next results test revenue stabilization and margin quality
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-5.0
Δ21d
+8.0
Value
37
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.8
Δ21d
-10.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 22.3 / Value 37.3 / Sentiment 70.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.98B
Beta
1.83
Shares Out
429.55M
P/E (TTM)
19.6
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-26.04
Rev YoY
-3.3%
EPS YoY
-121.3%
Gross Margin
+46.4%
Op Margin
+0.7%
Net Debt
$1.02B
Current Ratio
1.81
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data