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TWLO

TwilioD
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull case is that Q1's 20% reported growth, 114% DBNE, and raised FY26 guidance indicate Twilio's AI-era positioning and go-to-market changes are driving a more durable growth-plus-margin profile than the market had assumed.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
At $183.34, the stock is trading above the packet's median analyst target, increasing downside if analyst estimate or target revisions do not catch up after the earnings release.
Momentum
78
Value
50
Sentiment
29
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $170.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $135.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $260.18
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d -12.6
Value50 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment29 · Δ7d +1.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • At $183.34, the stock is trading above the packet's median analyst target, increasing downside if analyst estimate or target revisions do not catch up after the earnings release.
  • • Customer usage and spend remain sensitive to macro and political uncertainty, which the 10-Q says can reduce demand, delay sales cycles, lower renewals, and pressure revenue growth.
  • • The bear case is that this is still a monitoring setup: free cash flow declined year over year in Q1, macro and usage sensitivity remain explicit in the 10-Q, and delayed analyst revision details are unavailable in the packet, leaving limited confirmation that consensus has fully reset upward.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-30

Post-earnings follow-through after raised FY26 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.6
Δ21d
-3.3
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
29
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
-1.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 77.5 / Value 49.8 / Sentiment 29.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$135.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$35.11B
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
153.58M
P/E (TTM)
326.8
P/S (TTM)
4.22
P/FCF (TTM)
26.39
Rev YoY
+22.0%
EPS YoY
+4659.4%
Gross Margin
+47.9%
Op Margin
+5.9%
Net Debt
-$1.39B
Current Ratio
4.62
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data