B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$520.00
+19.4% vs current
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingDNYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment AIMost likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$394.42
-9.5% vs current
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$330.00
-24.2% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-01-30
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+16.7
Positive
Company
+17.2
Positive
Macro
+20.7
Positive
Pulse
-62.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+41.8
Score
AI commentary
Market sentiment is cautiously constructive: analysts' median targets sit above the anchor, reflecting optimism about AI-driven demand and node leadership [#SERP-1]. Short-term headline sensitivity remains (earnings, node yields), while longer-term consensus emphasizes structural secular drivers from AI and high-performance computing [#SERP-4].
RankAlpha Sentiment AI - 2026-01-30
Open full AI memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-04-30catalystNext quarterly earnings releaseMedium impact
Quarterly results and guidance that clarify margin and capex trajectory; market often reacts to node ramp commentary and customer demand signals [#SERP-1].
2026-12-31eventAdvanced-node capacity ramp (3nm/2nm) and new fab progressHigh impact
Commercial yield/capacity updates or announcements on fab commissioning could materially change revenue cadence; date is assumed at end of disclosed ramp windows if windows were cited [#SERP-4].
2027-01-30catalystSustained AI-driven foundry demand cycleHigh impact
Prolonged capital intensity from customers for advanced nodes and packaging supporting multi-year revenue growth and pricing power [#SERP-8], [#SERP-7].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-01-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology