B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$520.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingBNYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: TSMC sustains robust AI-driven wafer demand, successfully ramps advanced nodes with improving yields, and preserves pricing power. Execution-driven margin upside and continued capacity scarcity would justify premium multiples and push the stock toward the upper analyst range.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
What can break
Customer concentration and pricing pressure
Momentum
81
Value
58
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
8 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $394.42 · Bull $520.00 · Bear $330.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $553.18
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +1.2
Value58 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -2.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 8 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-28.
- • News driver: Proven revenue and science still attract capital as AI infrastructure debt reprices.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration and pricing pressure
- • Cyclical slowdown in data-center/AI capex
- • Bear case: A demand softening in key end markets (AI/cloud), delays in advanced-node yield ramp, or material competitive gains by other foundries/IDMs compresses utilization and margins.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-30
Next quarterly earnings release
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-7.6
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.6
Δ21d
+6.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 81.4 / Value 57.7 / Sentiment 55.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$394.42
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$330.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.92T
Beta
1.43
Shares Out
5.19B
P/E (TTM)
27.3
P/S (TTM)
11.93
P/FCF (TTM)
97.82
Rev YoY
+32.9%
EPS YoY
+73.3%
Gross Margin
+63.1%
Op Margin
+55.8%
Net Debt
-$63.66B
Current Ratio
2.46
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data