RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor ManufacturingC
NYSE / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Bull case: TSMC sustains robust AI-driven wafer demand, successfully ramps advanced nodes with improving yields, and preserves pricing power. Execution-driven margin upside and continued capacity scarcity would justify premium multiples and push the stock toward the upper analyst range.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Customer concentration and pricing pressure
Momentum
83
Value
60
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $394.42 · Bull $520.00 · Bear $330.00Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $543.66
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +37.6
Value60 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -3.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Customer concentration and pricing pressure
  • • Cyclical slowdown in data-center/AI capex
  • • Bear case: A demand softening in key end markets (AI/cloud), delays in advanced-node yield ramp, or material competitive gains by other foundries/IDMs compresses utilization and margins.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Next quarterly earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
83
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+37.6
Δ21d
+28.5
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.0
Δ21d
-7.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 83.2 / Value 59.5 / Sentiment 52.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$520.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$394.42
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
15%
Probability
Target price
$330.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.95T
Beta
1.43
Shares Out
5.19B
P/E (TTM)
27.3
P/S (TTM)
11.93
P/FCF (TTM)
97.82
Rev YoY
+32.9%
EPS YoY
+73.3%
Gross Margin
+63.1%
Op Margin
+55.8%
Net Debt
-$63.66B
Current Ratio
2.46
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data