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TSLA

TeslaC
Nasdaq / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q2 deliveries, energy-storage growth, and progress on Cybercab and other programs could support higher earnings if they scale with acceptable margins. The deterministic prior is modestly positive, not proof of commercial returns.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
News driver: AI rebound opens as a credit-and-earnings test.
What can break
Cybercab, Robotaxi, Semi, and Optimus timelines and commercial economics remain execution risks; Tesla describes its FSD offering as requiring active driver supervision. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Momentum
83
Value
47
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $380.00 · Bull $440.00 · Bear $270.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $417.69
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d +0.9
Value47 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -7.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: AI rebound opens as a credit-and-earnings test.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cybercab, Robotaxi, Semi, and Optimus timelines and commercial economics remain execution risks; Tesla describes its FSD offering as requiring active driver supervision. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
  • • Q2 negative free cash flow and planned manufacturing and AI investment raise the importance of capital discipline. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
  • • Q2's $28.236 billion of revenue generated only $0.4 billion of GAAP operating income, while free cash flow was negative $1.1 billion.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-29

$30 billion of new credit facilities

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+7.5
Value
47
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.3
Δ21d
-9.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 83.3 / Value 47.0 / Sentiment 49.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$440.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$380.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.47T
Beta
1.86
Shares Out
3.95B
P/E (TTM)
302.1
P/S (TTM)
15.71
P/FCF (TTM)
219.81
Rev YoY
+25.5%
EPS YoY
-5.5%
Gross Margin
+18.9%
Op Margin
+4.6%
Net Debt
-$29.73B
Current Ratio
1.94
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data