B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TRTX
TPG RE Finance TrustBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
At $6.33, TRTX trades about 42% below its June 30 book value of $10.95 per common share. The CLO could add durable funding, while first-half distributable earnings of $0.48 per share covered the two $0.24 common dividends declared for that period.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
What can break
Commercial real-estate credit losses could rise despite the unchanged June 30 weighted-average loan risk rating of 3.0 and 179-basis-point allowance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
Momentum
16
Value
59
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.25 · Bull $8.75 · Bear $4.75Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.54
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d +4.0
Value59 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -13.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commercial real-estate credit losses could rise despite the unchanged June 30 weighted-average loan risk rating of 3.0 and 179-basis-point allowance. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • Quarterly distributable earnings of $0.23 per share did not individually cover the $0.24 common dividend. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28]
- • Second-quarter distributable earnings of $0.23 per share fell below the $0.24 common dividend, and book value declined from $11.06 to $10.95 during the quarter.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-02
Expected closing of $1.0 billion CRE CLO
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
16
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
-0.8
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.1
Δ21d
-14.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 15.6 / Value 58.6 / Sentiment 61.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$479.81M
Beta
1.57
Shares Out
76.77M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
2.12
P/FCF (TTM)
42.41
Rev YoY
+2.6%
EPS YoY
-43.0%
Gross Margin
+85.2%
Op Margin
+75.8%
Net Debt
$3.2B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data