B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$10.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TRTX
TPG RE Finance TrustBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The funding reset, strong origination activity, subsequent $72 million loan, and continued buybacks could support earnings durability and book-value accretion. The $8.18 anchor is about 0.75x the $10.95 reported book value.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.
What can break
Book value per common share declined to $10.95 from $11.06 sequentially.
Momentum
22
Value
57
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.65 · Bull $10.75 · Bear $6.75Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.88
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d -2.4
Value57 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +5.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Book value per common share declined to $10.95 from $11.06 sequentially.
- • New financing capacity improves liquidity but leaves refinancing, borrowing-cost, and execution risk material.
- • Q2 distributable earnings were below the quarterly dividend, book value declined, and credit-loss allowance increased.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-28
Mixed Q2 results with major funding reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.4
Δ21d
+4.2
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.4
Δ21d
+3.3
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 21.9 / Value 57.3 / Sentiment 71.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$8.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$6.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$609.55M
Beta
1.57
Shares Out
76.77M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
2.12
P/FCF (TTM)
42.41
Rev YoY
+2.6%
EPS YoY
-43.0%
Gross Margin
+85.2%
Op Margin
+75.8%
Net Debt
$3.2B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data