B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TRST
TrustCo Bank NYCNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 results support a constructive operating trajectory: higher loan yields, deposit execution, margin expansion, balanced loan and deposit growth, and substantial buybacks. Q1 showed a similar direction in NII, NIM, and earnings.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.9.
What can break
Asset repricing and NIM gains could weaken if rates or deposit pricing move unfavorably.
Momentum
69
Value
48
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $59.00 · Bull $65.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-07-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum69 · Δ7d +2.4
Value48 · Δ7d -6.8
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -3.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Asset repricing and NIM gains could weaken if rates or deposit pricing move unfavorably.
- • Credit metrics and reserve trends require confirmation in the full quarterly filing; the available Q2 excerpt is truncated.
- • The earnings beat is backward-looking, while analyst target changes, estimate revisions, and detailed forward guidance are unavailable.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-21
Q2 2026 earnings showed broad operating improvement
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
69
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+6.9
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.8
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-3.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 69.0 / Value 48.0 / Sentiment 63.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$59.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$967.18M
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
17.03M
P/E (TTM)
13.8
P/S (TTM)
4.18
P/FCF (TTM)
46.99
Rev YoY
+6.8%
EPS YoY
+23.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+28.4%
Net Debt
$105.88M
Current Ratio
0.16
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data