B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$132.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TROW
T Rowe Price GroupBNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed strong AUM and revenue growth, an adjusted EPS beat versus the cited secondary consensus, positive flows in May and June, and continued investment in integrated strategies, ETFs, and SMAs. Capital return adds support.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Continued redemptions from fundamental active equity strategies
Momentum
29
Value
58
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $118.00 · Bull $132.00 · Bear $97.00Analysis 2026-08-05; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-05 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $107.17
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d +2.2
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +6.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continued redemptions from fundamental active equity strategies
- • Further fee-rate compression from asset and vehicle mix
- • The core issue remains organic demand: Q2 net outflows were $6.5 billion, management expects fundamental active-equity pressure to persist in the second half, and fee-rate compression may limit the benefit of higher AUM.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Q2 2026 earnings produced strong revenue and EPS growth but continued outflows
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
-11.1
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.0
Δ21d
+3.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 29.0 / Value 58.5 / Sentiment 68.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-05. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$97.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-05 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$23.56B
Beta
1.55
Shares Out
213.32M
P/E (TTM)
11.6
P/S (TTM)
3.23
P/FCF (TTM)
873.69
Rev YoY
+10.7%
EPS YoY
+28.6%
Gross Margin
+79.5%
Op Margin
+36.9%
Net Debt
-$2.91B
Current Ratio
2.42
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data