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TRN

Trinity IndustriesC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
High fleet utilization, a positive future lease rate differential, and a $1.6 billion backlog could support stronger returns if second-half volumes and the maintained Rail Products margin outlook are achieved. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Orders roughly matched second-quarter deliveries; a sustained order acceleration is not yet established. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
29
Value
53
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $19.00Analysis 2026-10-01; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-01 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $31.00
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d +9.5
Value53 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -5.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Orders roughly matched second-quarter deliveries; a sustained order acceleration is not yet established. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • Railcar delivery mix and the timing of lease-portfolio sales and capital spending can shift reported results. [#8-K-2026-07-30]
  • • Second-quarter Rail Products margin missed management’s expectations, while the headline $1.25 EPS included a $132 million non-cash gain.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Quarterly dividend payment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
29
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.5
Δ21d
+10.4
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
61
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.6
Δ21d
-6.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 29.1 / Value 52.8 / Sentiment 61.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-01. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-01 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.03B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
79.67M
P/E (TTM)
21.5
P/S (TTM)
0.98
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.64
Rev YoY
-4.2%
EPS YoY
+608.2%
Gross Margin
+25.8%
Op Margin
+15.2%
Net Debt
$5.23B
Current Ratio
2.09
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data