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TRN

Trinity IndustriesB
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Bull case: stronger-than-expected Q1 results or upbeat backlog/order commentary combined with favorable lease disclosures for TILC could re-rate TRN back toward higher historical multiples and push the stock toward low-to-mid $30s/$36.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.
What can break
Lease-related liabilities or accounting disclosures from TILC
Momentum
23
Value
54
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $32.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $26.00Analysis 2026-04-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $34.00
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d +16.1
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Lease-related liabilities or accounting disclosures from TILC
  • • Lower-than-expected order/backlog update
  • • Bear case: mixed or weaker guidance, profit-margin pressure in manufacturing, or lease-related liabilities/changes disclosed in the 8-K could push multiple compression and drive the stock toward mid-$20s.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-15

8-K disclosure re: Trinity Industries Leasing Company (TILC)

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
23
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.1
Δ21d
+16.9
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.2
Δ21d
+5.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 23.1 / Value 53.6 / Sentiment 76.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.38B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
79.67M
P/E (TTM)
21.5
P/S (TTM)
0.98
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.43
Rev YoY
-4.2%
EPS YoY
+608.2%
Gross Margin
+25.8%
Op Margin
+15.2%
Net Debt
$5.23B
Current Ratio
2.09
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data