B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TRLV
Trulieve CannabisCNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Trulieve remains adjusted-profitable with a 60% gross margin, $98 million of adjusted EBITDA, $53 million of quarterly operating cash flow, $32 million of free cash flow, and $325 million of cash. The buyback and potential regulatory or state-market expansion could support a rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.
What can break
CEO Kim Rivers reported approximately 1.699 million open-market shares sold for approximately $14.7 million during June 17-26. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-22] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-25] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-26]
Momentum
95
Value
68
Sentiment
43
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.18
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +2.5
Value68 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment43 · Δ7d +1.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CEO Kim Rivers reported approximately 1.699 million open-market shares sold for approximately $14.7 million during June 17-26. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-22] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-25] [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-26]
- • Low coverage and unavailable analyst-count, revision, and consensus data limit confidence in valuation and earnings-surprise interpretation.
- • Revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined year over year, Q2 revenue fell sequentially despite prior growth expectations, and cash flow was weaker than the prior-year quarter.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-07
Share repurchase authorization
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+13.8
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
43
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
+8.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 94.9 / Value 67.9 / Sentiment 42.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.82B
Beta
1.72
Shares Out
192.57M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-15.6
P/S (TTM)
1.32
P/FCF (TTM)
11.08
Rev YoY
-10.3%
EPS YoY
+2821.8%
Gross Margin
+49.4%
Op Margin
+13.7%
Net Debt
$308.09M
Current Ratio
5.94
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data