B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TRIP
TripAdvisorCNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
TheFork closes as expected and Experiences booking growth begins to translate into higher margins, supporting a portfolio-simplification re-rating. The Q2 release reported approximately 5% experience-booking growth and a pending $700 million sale.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Q2 Hotels and Other revenue declined 21%, and Experiences adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 11.1% from 14.0%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
29
Value
66
Sentiment
44
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $11.00 · Bear $5.50Analysis 2026-09-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.75
Why
Momentum29 · Δ7d +18.5
Value66 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment44 · Δ7d -0.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q2 Hotels and Other revenue declined 21%, and Experiences adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 11.1% from 14.0%. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Q2 continuing-operations free cash flow fell 29% year over year, despite remaining positive. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Hotels and Other contraction persists while marketing intensity and weaker Experiences margins absorb booking growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Pending TheFork sale
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
29
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.5
Δ21d
+25.6
Value
66
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-1.2
Sentiment
44
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-17.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 28.7 / Value 66.2 / Sentiment 43.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.1B
Beta
1.02
Shares Out
117.2M
P/E (TTM)
23.3
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM)
6.66
Rev YoY
-7.2%
EPS YoY
-31.3%
Gross Margin
+58.6%
Op Margin
+5.0%
Net Debt
$216M
Current Ratio
1.56
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data