B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TREE
LendingTreeCNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue grew 25% year over year to $313.4 million and adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to $35.2 million, led by Insurance. Stabilizing small-business demand could improve Consumer results, but the recovery is not yet evidenced [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] (earnings exhibit).
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Further weakness in small-business borrower demand could prevent the sequential Consumer recovery management expects.
Momentum
12
Value
64
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $24.00 · Bull $32.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $54.17
Why
Momentum12 · Δ7d -1.0
Value64 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -5.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Further weakness in small-business borrower demand could prevent the sequential Consumer recovery management expects.
- • Insurance segment profit margin fell to 24% from 27% a year earlier despite strong revenue growth [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29] (earnings exhibit).
- • Q2 variable marketing margin was $87.3 million, below the company's prior $93–97 million outlook.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-28
Test of reduced 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
12
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
+4.6
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.1
Δ21d
-15.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 12.0 / Value 64.2 / Sentiment 47.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$376.4M
Beta
2.14
Shares Out
14.04M
P/E (TTM)
53.6
P/S (TTM)
0.70
P/FCF (TTM)
12.29
Rev YoY
+25.3%
EPS YoY
+4.9%
Gross Margin
+94.7%
Op Margin
+8.5%
Net Debt
$358.54M
Current Ratio
1.85
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data