B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$1.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TPST
Tempest TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Senlang collaboration could advance TPST-4003 into patients, while reported interim TPST-2003 responses offer an early clinical signal. The 15 efficacy-evaluable CAR-T-naïve patients cited for TPST-2003 remain too few to establish durable efficacy [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
June 30 cash of $0.8 million and first-half operating cash use of $10.4 million imply acute funding risk; current cash is not established [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
Momentum
85
Value
41
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.50 · Bull $1.20 · Bear $0.20Analysis 2026-10-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.00
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • June 30 cash of $0.8 million and first-half operating cash use of $10.4 million imply acute funding risk; current cash is not established [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
- • TPST-2003 interim response results are based on a small efficacy-evaluable group and do not establish registrational success [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13].
- • Very limited reported cash, continuing development needs, and the newly disclosed related-party service commitment create substantial financing and dilution risk [#SEC-8K-2026-08-13] [#8-K-2026-09-28].
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
TPST-4003 first-patient dosing
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 85.3 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 53.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$0.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$8.63M
Beta
-2.45
Shares Out
16.89M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.1
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.16
Rev YoY
-100.0%
EPS YoY
-83.4%
Gross Margin
-351.1%
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
$434K
Current Ratio
0.38
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data