B+
Bull case
22%
Probability
Target price
$460.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TPL
Texas Pacific LandCNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 validated TPL's ability to compound legacy royalty and water economics with newer monetization paths: record quarterly revenue and net income, a $42.5M data-center/power-linked land transaction, and a near-term desalination startup milestone all point to upside that is not purely a WTI call option. [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.
What can break
Desalination remains an execution story until the Orla facility actually processes inlet barrels and demonstrates commercial economics at scale. [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
Momentum
18
Value
43
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $360.00 · Bull $460.00 · Bear $300.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $441.33
Why
Momentum18 · Δ7d +6.1
Value43 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment64 · Δ7d +2.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Desalination remains an execution story until the Orla facility actually processes inlet barrels and demonstrates commercial economics at scale. [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-06]
- • Governance remains a monitoring item after the Horizon Kinetics board representative agreement and Peter Doyle's board appointment, even if it is not yet an operating negative. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
- • The bear case is that the quarter still leaned on transaction revenue and favorable realized pricing while water sales fell sequentially, and management explicitly states revenues are driven by Permian operator decisions and commodity prices.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-15
Q1 print confirmed record revenue, record net income, and fresh capital return support
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
18
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+1.7
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
64
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 18.1 / Value 43.2 / Sentiment 63.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
46%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
32%
Probability
Target price
$300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$24.89B
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
68.97M
P/E (TTM)
43.1
P/S (TTM)
26.56
P/FCF (TTM)
396.66
Rev YoY
+31.2%
EPS YoY
+32.6%
Gross Margin
+85.8%
Op Margin
+74.9%
Net Debt
-$129.23M
Current Ratio
4.55
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data