B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TOST
ToastBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-07
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+18.7
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+18.7
Positive
Pulse
-
Unavailable
Weekly research (10D)
+4.2
Mixed
Sentiment proxy
+92.5
Score
AI commentary
The company-source earnings disclosure is operationally constructive, with a dated September 30 guidance checkpoint. However, the later T+3 follow-up lacks verified analyst revisions, target changes, and a pre-release price comparison; the packet only provides a $34.72 August 6 anchor. News flow is constructive but incomplete, so this remains a cautious monitoring view rather than a high-conviction rerating call.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-07
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators; later post-earnings follow-up lacks concrete company-source and analyst/market reaction evidence
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-09-30catalystSeptember 30 Q3 guidance checkpointMedium impact
Near-term sentiment depends on delivering the Q3 outlook for the quarter ending September 30, 2026. Q2 adjusted EBITDA included an approximately $10 million one-time tariff-refund benefit, making underlying margin conversion an important check. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
2026-11-05eventQ2 operating momentum and Q3 outlookHigh impact
Toast reported 9,500 net new locations, ARR growth of 25% to $2.4 billion, GPV growth of 22% to $60.7 billion, recurring gross profit growth of 28%, and Q3 guidance of $615-$625 million recurring gross profit and $210-$220 million adjusted EBITDA. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
2027-08-07catalystRecurring growth and capital-return compoundingHigh impact
The medium-term thesis is supported by 22% location growth, 22% GPV growth, 25% ARR growth, and $486 million of year-to-date share repurchases through June 30, 2026. The packet provides no separate dated long-term company milestone. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-07 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology