B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$42.00
+24.2% vs current
TOST
ToastBNYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
At close
2026-08-05
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+1Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
+6.5% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
-17.2% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-08-05
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+12.5
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+14.8
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+62.7
Score
AI commentary
Primary-source earnings tone is positive, while the immediate market response was constructive but volatile. The evidence supports a positive monitoring stance; missing consensus surprise, analyst-revision, options, and social data reduce confidence in a stronger signal.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-08-05
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
peer set is too generic or lacks enough direct operating comparators
Impact
tentative
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-08-04eventQ2 execution and raised FY2026 outlookMedium impact
Toast reported 25% ARR growth to $2.4 billion, record 9,500 net location adds, 22% GPV growth, $221 million adjusted EBITDA, and raised full-year recurring gross profit and EBITDA guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
2026-08-04eventEnterprise and international customer expansionMedium impact
Toast announced a Best Western endorsement and expanded its TGI Fridays rollout in the United Kingdom, providing specific enterprise and international expansion channels to monitor [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
2026-08-04catalystAI monetization and new-market expansionHigh impact
Toast IQ Grow, enterprise, international, and retail expansion could extend ARR growth and monetization, but AI conversion and new-market economics remain early-stage [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-08-05 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology