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TOST

ToastB
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record location additions, strong ARR and GPV growth, recurring gross-profit expansion, margin improvement, AI-product momentum, and buybacks support a constructive platform-scaling thesis. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net neutral as of 2026-09-19.
What can break
Free cash flow declined year over year despite higher net income, requiring monitoring of cash conversion.
Momentum
63
Value
46
Sentiment
79
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $44.00 · Bear $28.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $38.96
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -18.3
Value46 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment79 · Δ7d +8.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 4 setup hits (3d) with net neutral as of 2026-09-19.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Free cash flow declined year over year despite higher net income, requiring monitoring of cash conversion.
  • • Q3 guidance execution could disappoint, particularly if the tariff-refund benefit does not repeat.
  • • Execution risk remains around the Q3 outlook, especially because Q2 adjusted EBITDA benefited from a one-time tariff refund.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-30

September 30 Q3 guidance checkpoint

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.3
Δ21d
-23.5
Value
46
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
79
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+23.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 63.4 / Value 46.1 / Sentiment 78.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$28.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$19.94B
Beta
1.94
Shares Out
581M
P/E (TTM)
77.8
P/S (TTM)
3.46
P/FCF (TTM)
35.97
Rev YoY
+23.1%
EPS YoY
+97.4%
Gross Margin
+26.7%
Op Margin
+6.4%
Net Debt
-$1.97B
Current Ratio
2.30
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data