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TOL

Toll BrothersA
NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 beat, 5% contract growth, above-guidance adjusted margin, reaffirmed FY26 outlook, and higher buyback target support a cautiously positive setup. Luxury positioning and affluent buyers appear to be cushioning rate and affordability pressure.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.8.
What can break
Adjusted home-sales gross margin fell 190 basis points year over year and SG&A increased as a percentage of revenue.
Momentum
42
Value
63
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $158.00 · Bull $178.00 · Bear $126.00Analysis 2026-08-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $173.29
Why
Momentum42 · Δ7d -0.9
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +10.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted home-sales gross margin fell 190 basis points year over year and SG&A increased as a percentage of revenue.
  • • Backlog value declined year over year, leaving forward volume visibility dependent on conversion and pricing.
  • • The underlying trend remains mixed: revenue, deliveries, EPS, backlog value, and adjusted margin declined year over year, while SG&A increased.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-21

Q3 FY26 beat tempered by lower year-over-year profitability

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
42
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.9
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.3
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.8
Δ21d
+3.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 41.6 / Value 63.3 / Sentiment 81.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$178.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$158.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$126.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.6B
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
93.47M
P/E (TTM)
10.0
P/S (TTM)
1.18
P/FCF (TTM)
13.92
Rev YoY
-9.7%
EPS YoY
-20.3%
Gross Margin
+24.4%
Op Margin
+14.2%
Net Debt
$1.66B
Current Ratio
4.35
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data