B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$168.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TOL
Toll BrothersBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Contracts rose 5% by units in the third quarter, cancellations improved, fourth-quarter guidance was reaffirmed, and planned community growth and repurchases support a recovery if orders convert profitably. Company earnings release
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Community expansion requires disciplined land spending and sufficient buyer demand; the company's release describes the housing market as challenging. Company earnings release
Momentum
40
Value
64
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $142.00 · Bull $168.00 · Bear $110.00Analysis 2026-10-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $169.47
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -7.4
Value64 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -5.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Community expansion requires disciplined land spending and sufficient buyer demand; the company's release describes the housing market as challenging. Company earnings release
- • Further gross-margin compression or elevated SG&A could undermine fourth-quarter guidance. Company earnings release
- • Third-quarter deliveries, home-sales revenue, EPS and backlog declined year over year; adjusted home-sales gross margin fell to 25.6% from 27.5%, while SG&A rose to 10.0% of home-sales revenue from 8.8%.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Fiscal fourth-quarter delivery and margin results
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
40
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.4
Δ21d
+2.0
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.1
Δ21d
-16.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 40.3 / Value 63.6 / Sentiment 56.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$142.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$110.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$12.89B
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
92.15M
P/E (TTM)
10.0
P/S (TTM)
1.18
P/FCF (TTM)
13.92
Rev YoY
-9.7%
EPS YoY
-20.3%
Gross Margin
+24.4%
Op Margin
+14.2%
Net Debt
$1.66B
Current Ratio
4.35
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data