B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TOL
Toll BrothersANYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Third-quarter contracts grew, cancellations improved, management reaffirmed approximately $10.5 billion of fiscal 2026 home-sales revenue and a 26.1% adjusted gross margin, and planned repurchases increased to $700 million. Community growth and affluent-customer resilience could produce upside if Q4 execution meets guidance.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.6.
What can break
Further deterioration in home-sales gross margin from pricing pressure, product mix, incentives, or carrying costs.
Momentum
43
Value
63
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $150.00 · Bull $175.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $173.29
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d +18.0
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +8.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Further deterioration in home-sales gross margin from pricing pressure, product mix, incentives, or carrying costs.
- • Lower year-over-year backlog value and units could constrain forward revenue if contract growth does not persist.
- • Third-quarter home-sales revenue fell to $2.65 billion from $2.88 billion, diluted EPS declined to $2.97 from $3.73, adjusted gross margin contracted to 25.6% from 27.5%, and backlog remained lower year over year.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
Fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter delivery and margin execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
43
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.0
Δ21d
+7.4
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.3
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.6
Δ21d
+11.7
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 43.3 / Value 63.3 / Sentiment 82.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$150.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.6B
Beta
1.46
Shares Out
93.47M
P/E (TTM)
10.0
P/S (TTM)
1.18
P/FCF (TTM)
13.92
Rev YoY
-9.7%
EPS YoY
-20.3%
Gross Margin
+24.4%
Op Margin
+14.2%
Net Debt
$1.66B
Current Ratio
4.35
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data