TOL

Toll BrothersB

NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel

At close

2026-07-18

Current thesis

Q2 results supported the bull case: EPS $2.72 and revenue $2.51B came in above market expectations, orders improved, adjusted gross margin held at 26.2%, and management raised FY26 guidance [#8-K-2026-05-19]. The longer-run setup also benefits from higher community count and continued land control.

Posture

Constructive

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

What can break

Adjusted home sales gross margin fell to 26.2% from 27.5% a year ago, and pre-tax inventory impairments rose to $32.5M from $9.8M.

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $172.75 · Bull $190.00 · Bear $105.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-18

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-19 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-18

Supporting evidence

What

Grade B · Constructive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $169.71

Why

Momentum55 · Δ7d +0.5

Value65 · Δ7d +0.1

Sentiment52 · Δ7d -4.1

So what

Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+0.5

Δ21d

-9.8

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.1

Δ21d

+1.6

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-4.1

Δ21d

+7.4

Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 55.1 / Value 64.7 / Sentiment 52.1

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-17

Market Cap

$14.09B

Beta

1.46

Shares Out

93.47M

P/E (TTM)

10.0

P/S (TTM)

1.18

P/FCF (TTM)

13.92

Rev YoY

-7.6%

EPS YoY

-22.3%

Gross Margin

+24.5%

Op Margin

+15.7%

Net Debt

$1.66B

Current Ratio

3.83

As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology