B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$0.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TNYA
Tenaya TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Further clinical benefit with acceptable safety, coupled with workable pivotal-trial plans, could improve confidence in TN-201 and TN-401. Tenaya’s August update also reported a $10 million Alnylam collaboration upfront payment [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Cash runway was projected through Q3 2027, potentially ahead of or near the planned second-half 2027 TN-301 Phase 2 start [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
92
Value
41
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.34 · Bull $0.65 · Bear $0.15Analysis 2026-10-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.33
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment40 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash runway was projected through Q3 2027, potentially ahead of or near the planned second-half 2027 TN-301 Phase 2 start [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Q2 2026 net loss was $43.4 million, including a $21.8 million non-cash manufacturing-facility impairment; future manufacturing will depend partly on an external contractor [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Both lead programs rely on small early-stage datasets.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
TN-201 MyPEAK-1 interim data and pivotal-trial discussions
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
92
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
40
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 92.1 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 40.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$0.34
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$0.15
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$91.62M
Beta
3.19
Shares Out
224.23M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.7
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.45
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+39.4%
Gross Margin
-435.7%
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$89.72M
Current Ratio
4.52
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data