B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TNYA
Tenaya TherapeuticsBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that the May 15, 2026 RIDGE-1 update and the still-pending first-half 2026 TN-201 follow-up extend the early clinical signal package and improve visibility toward 2026 regulatory-path discussions, while the Alnylam collaboration adds longer-horizon strategic optionality and external validation to Tenaya’s target-discovery platform [#PR-2026-03-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Even with cash expected to fund at least the next twelve months from the March 11, 2026 filing date, future financing and dilution risk remain material for a low-cap clinical-stage biotech [#10-K-2026-03-11].
Momentum
92
Value
41
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.65 · Bull $1.25 · Bear $0.30Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.33
Why
Momentum92 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Even with cash expected to fund at least the next twelve months from the March 11, 2026 filing date, future financing and dilution risk remain material for a low-cap clinical-stage biotech [#10-K-2026-03-11].
- • Nasdaq gave Tenaya until July 27, 2026 to regain compliance with the $1.00 minimum bid-price requirement, creating ongoing listing-risk and reverse-split pressure if the stock does not recover [#8-K-2026-01-26].
- • The bear case is that this scheduled T+3 follow-up still does not have a confirmed Q1 2026 company earnings release, shareholder letter, 8-K earnings exhibit, or 10-Q in the checked IR materials as of May 4, 2026, leaving no fresh burn-rate or guidance update to offset the sub-$1 share price, Nasdaq compliance clock, and normal early-stage gene-therapy execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
RIDGE-1 late-breaking ASGCT data on May 15
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
92
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 92.1 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 74.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$0.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$156.98M
Beta
3.19
Shares Out
224.23M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.2
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-2.49
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+39.4%
Gross Margin
-435.7%
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$89.72M
Current Ratio
4.52
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data