B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
TLYS
Tilly'sFNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: successful margin and inventory normalization combined with steady comp recovery and disciplined promotions drives revenue and operating leverage, supporting upside toward analyst high levels. For context vs sell-side coverage: base target equals the analyst median (1.74) and the bull target aligns with the analyst high (2.50); the bear target (1.10) is a downside-stress outcome below the analyst low (1.43).
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Deeper promotional markdowns compressing margins
Momentum
49
Value
41
Sentiment
16
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.74 · Bull $2.50 · Bear $1.10Analysis 2026-02-10; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-10 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.50
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d -31.1
Value41 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment16 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Deeper promotional markdowns compressing margins
- • Inventory misalignment leading to elevated markdowns
- • Bear case: weaker-than-expected consumer demand or deeper promotional activity forces margin contraction and markdowns, pushing the stock below current trading levels and toward downside stress outcomes.
Catalyst clock
2026-03-31
Fiscal quarterly / full-year results release
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
49
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-31.1
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
16
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 48.9 / Value 40.8 / Sentiment 15.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-10. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$1.74
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-10 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$112.2M
Beta
1.17
Shares Out
30.49M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.3
P/S (TTM)
0.11
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
30.09
Rev YoY
+15.9%
EPS YoY
-64.2%
Gross Margin
+31.4%
Op Margin
-9.6%
Net Debt
$124.14M
Current Ratio
1.12
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data