B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TLK
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) TbkCNYSE / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Revenue growth, mobile ARPU improvement, operating-cash-flow growth, B2B infrastructure momentum, dividends, and a potential buyback provide a credible but early recovery case.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
What can break
Buyback execution and economics remain unconfirmed.
Momentum
33
Value
41
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.40 · Bull $18.50 · Bear $12.40Analysis 2026-07-20; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-20 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $19.04
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -2.2
Value41 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +3.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Buyback execution and economics remain unconfirmed.
- • IndiHome fixed-broadband revenue and consumer ARPU face competitive pressure.
- • Net-income pressure from accelerated depreciation and business normalization, persistent IndiHome competition, declining legacy voice/SMS revenue, and limited evidence of sustained earnings improvement keep the thesis cautious.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-19
August 2026 investor conference checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-4.1
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-6.7
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.4
Δ21d
-2.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 33.2 / Value 41.4 / Sentiment 65.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-20. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$15.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-20 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$259.54T
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
985.81M
P/E (TTM)
16.3
P/S (TTM)
2.41
P/FCF (TTM)
9.22
Rev YoY
-0.7%
EPS YoY
+19.4%
Gross Margin
+30.7%
Op Margin
+23.9%
Net Debt
$2.35B
Current Ratio
0.78
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data