B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TLK
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) TbkCNYSE / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
First-half revenue rose 3.9% year over year and EBITDA rose 3.8%; higher mobile ARPU and disciplined spending could help Telkom meet its retained 2026 normalized-revenue and EBITDA-margin guidance. InfraNexia and Batam offer additional upside only if operations translate into measurable returns.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
What can break
Batam's initial-operation timing and utilization remain unconfirmed, despite the company's second-half 2026 target. [#PR-2026-09-07] Telkom public-expose update
Momentum
16
Value
72
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.10 · Bull $12.80 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.91
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d -4.7
Value72 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -9.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Batam's initial-operation timing and utilization remain unconfirmed, despite the company's second-half 2026 target. [#PR-2026-09-07] Telkom public-expose update
- • Capital intensity, currency translation and competitive pricing could weaken ADR returns even if reported rupiah operating measures improve.
- • Broadband customer losses, price competition and infrastructure investment could offset mobile gains.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-30
InfraNexia spin-off milestone completed
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
16
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.7
Δ21d
-5.4
Value
72
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.8
Δ21d
-15.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 16.1 / Value 71.8 / Sentiment 45.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$11.83B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
985.81M
P/E (TTM)
16.3
P/S (TTM)
2.41
P/FCF (TTM)
9.22
Rev YoY
-0.7%
EPS YoY
+19.4%
Gross Margin
+30.7%
Op Margin
+23.9%
Net Debt
$2.35B
Current Ratio
0.78
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data