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TKO

TKO GroupB
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Integration and loyalty rollouts lift retention and margins, supporting a multiple re-rating and material upside versus the anchor.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.
What can break
Demand cyclicality and macro sensitivity
Momentum
35
Value
48
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $206.94 · Bull $331.10 · Bear $82.78Analysis 2026-01-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $231.32
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d -4.6
Value48 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +1.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Demand cyclicality and macro sensitivity
  • • Integration execution risk
  • • Delayed integration, weak demand, or margin pressure force multiple contraction and steep downside.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-04

Q4 2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
35
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
-5.7
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.5
Sentiment
73
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.9
Δ21d
+5.9
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 34.6 / Value 48.2 / Sentiment 73.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$331.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$206.94
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$82.78
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$36.93B
Beta
0.67
Shares Out
73.11M
P/E (TTM)
85.1
P/S (TTM)
9.16
P/FCF (TTM)
46.49
Rev YoY
+18.2%
EPS YoY
+14.3%
Gross Margin
+49.5%
Op Margin
+21.9%
Net Debt
$2.88B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data