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THO

Thor IndustriesA
NYSE / Automobiles & Components
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull case is that THOR is moving from trough-like channel cleanup toward a more normal second half: Q2 returned to profitability, motorized demand was strong, gross margin held stable year to date, guidance was not cut, and management has now paired operational restructuring with continued capital return. The packet's median analyst target of $106.36 sits well above the $77.20 anchor, suggesting outside models still see cyclical recovery upside, although target-count visibility is unavailable.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.
What can break
Dealer and channel risk remains material: one dealer represented about 14% of six-month sales, and standby repurchase obligations on dealer inventory financing totaled $3.673B. [#10-Q-2026-03-03]
Momentum
45
Value
59
Sentiment
83
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $100.00 · Bear $64.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $85.64
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d -9.2
Value59 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment83 · Δ7d +7.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Dealer and channel risk remains material: one dealer represented about 14% of six-month sales, and standby repurchase obligations on dealer inventory financing totaled $3.673B. [#10-Q-2026-03-03]
  • • European RV gross margin fell 220 bps in fiscal Q2 and the segment posted a loss before tax, with special-edition mix, higher warranty costs and restructuring charges pressuring profitability; backlog growth there was largely helped by FX. [#10-Q-2026-03-03]
  • • The bear case is that this is still mainly a monitoring story: North American towable backlog remains weak, Europe needed favorable FX to boost backlog while margins deteriorated, some earnings help came from asset sales, and management explicitly refused to raise guidance because recent geopolitical events increased uncertainty.

Catalyst clock

2026-03-03

Q2 profitability recovery and unchanged FY2026 guide reset near-term downside

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
45
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.2
Δ21d
+3.2
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.3
Sentiment
83
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.5
Δ21d
+8.7
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 44.7 / Value 58.8 / Sentiment 82.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$64.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.04B
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
52.06M
P/E (TTM)
19.9
P/S (TTM)
0.56
P/FCF (TTM)
17.34
Rev YoY
-3.9%
EPS YoY
-26.7%
Gross Margin
+12.1%
Op Margin
+2.5%
Net Debt
$440.55M
Current Ratio
1.71
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data