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TFSL

TFS FinancialB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Dividend-waiver approval could support capital returns, while Q2 operating momentum and mortgage-growth commentary provide a constructive setup.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.0.
What can break
Deposits declined while FHLB borrowings increased in Q2, leaving funding-cost and liquidity sensitivity as monitoring risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
Momentum
48
Value
51
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.50 · Bull $21.50 · Bear $15.50Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $19.00
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d -2.5
Value51 · Δ7d +9.8
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +9.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposits declined while FHLB borrowings increased in Q2, leaving funding-cost and liquidity sensitivity as monitoring risks. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-30]
  • • Federal Reserve non-objection timing and outcome are unknown.
  • • The approval process remains uncertain, Q3 earnings evidence is unverified, and Q2 showed modestly higher delinquencies, lower deposits, and greater FHLB borrowing.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-26

Dividend-waiver approval and Federal Reserve non-objection

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-1.0
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.8
Δ21d
+9.8
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.0
Δ21d
+5.8
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 47.7 / Value 51.3 / Sentiment 69.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.91B
Beta
0.75
Shares Out
280.44M
P/E (TTM)
43.0
P/S (TTM)
12.00
P/FCF (TTM)
337.36
Rev YoY
+5.9%
EPS YoY
+44.2%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.7%
Net Debt
$4.85B
Current Ratio
0.19
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data