RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

TEAM

AtlassianF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The primary-source read is fundamentally constructive: Q3 growth accelerated, cloud growth re-accelerated to 29%, RPO reached about $4.0B, management raised FY26 revenue expectations, and shareholder materials highlighted stronger enterprise, AI, and collections adoption with signs that Rovo usage correlates with faster ARR growth. The official May 6 Flex announcement also suggests Atlassian is trying to make enterprise AI adoption easier to monetize across a broader platform footprint.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · AMC.
What can break
Free cash flow fell y/y in Q3 and the 10-Q said the decline was driven by lower operating cash flow, including higher cash paid to employees, vendors, restructuring-related items, and income taxes. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Momentum
96
Value
48
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $102.00 · Bear $70.00Analysis 2026-05-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
43 · Disqualified
Next 2026-11-05 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-30 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-31 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $225.52
Why
Momentum96 · Δ7d -0.7
Value48 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
43Disqualified2026-11-05 amc
View setup

Atlassian’s prior quarter showed strong cloud growth and RPO, and its next-quarter revenue guidance previously exceeded the then-consensus estimate. However, no current positive EPS revision/ESP was verified, the stock fell about 15.8% from October 23 through October 30 on heavy selling, and it closed near the lower end of the recent session ranges as XLK also sold off.

Screen as of 2026-10-31. Window 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-06.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 43 / disqualified.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Free cash flow fell y/y in Q3 and the 10-Q said the decline was driven by lower operating cash flow, including higher cash paid to employees, vendors, restructuring-related items, and income taxes. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
  • • GAAP operating margin was negative in Q3 and included sizable restructuring charges, so durable profitable growth still needs more proof beyond one strong quarter. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
  • • The memo still leans cautious because forward visibility is not clean.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05 · AMC

Q4 FY26 execution against raised outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
96
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-2.0
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
0
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 96.2 / Value 47.7 / Sentiment 0.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-30
Market Cap
$48.29B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
251.85M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-926.6
P/S (TTM)
7.42
P/FCF (TTM)
27.81
Rev YoY
+27.6%
EPS YoY
-703.7%
Gross Margin
+85.3%
Op Margin
+4.2%
Net Debt
-$6.6M
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data