TEAM

AtlassianD

Nasdaq / Software & Services

At close

2026-07-22

Current thesis

The primary-source read is fundamentally constructive: Q3 growth accelerated, cloud growth re-accelerated to 29%, RPO reached about $4.0B, management raised FY26 revenue expectations, and shareholder materials highlighted stronger enterprise, AI, and collections adoption with signs that Rovo usage correlates with faster ARR growth. The official May 6 Flex announcement also suggests Atlassian is trying to make enterprise AI adoption easier to monetize across a broader platform footprint.

Posture

Defensive

Lead driver

Value

What changed

Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.

What can break

Free cash flow fell y/y in Q3 and the 10-Q said the decline was driven by lower operating cash flow, including higher cash paid to employees, vendors, restructuring-related items, and income taxes. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]

Momentum

Value

Sentiment

Setup hits (3d)

0 · Net Neutral

AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $102.00 · Bear $70.00

Data freshness

Prices

As of 2026-07-22

Fundamentals

As of 2026-07-21 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1

Scores

As of 2026-07-22 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP

AI Memo

As of 2026-05-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Investment thesis

As of 2026-07-22

Supporting evidence

What

Grade D · Defensive

Confidence Medium · Net Neutral

Target $125.30

Why

Momentum33 · Δ7d +10.1

Value48 · Δ7d +0.2

Sentiment46 · Δ7d -2.1

So what

Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals

Momentum

26% active weight

Current posture

7d trendImproving

Δ7d

+10.1

Δ21d

+12.3

Value

39% active weight

Current posture

7d trendFlat

Δ7d

+0.2

Δ21d

-0.2

Sentiment

34% active weight

Current posture

7d trendSoftening

Δ7d

-2.1

Δ21d

-16.9

Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 33.1 / Value 47.7 / Sentiment 46.2

Fundamentals (TTM)

As of 2026-07-21

Market Cap

$22.99B

Beta

0.89

Shares Out

253.77M

P/E (TTM) · Derived

47.2

P/S (TTM)

7.42

P/FCF (TTM)

27.81

Rev YoY

+31.7%

EPS YoY

+39.8%

Gross Margin

+84.5%

Op Margin

-3.6%

Net Debt

-$1.7B

Current Ratio

0.69

As of 2026-07-22 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology