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TEAM

AtlassianF
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The primary-source read is fundamentally constructive: Q3 growth accelerated, cloud growth re-accelerated to 29%, RPO reached about $4.0B, management raised FY26 revenue expectations, and shareholder materials highlighted stronger enterprise, AI, and collections adoption with signs that Rovo usage correlates with faster ARR growth. The official May 6 Flex announcement also suggests Atlassian is trying to make enterprise AI adoption easier to monetize across a broader platform footprint.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Free cash flow fell y/y in Q3 and the 10-Q said the decline was driven by lower operating cash flow, including higher cash paid to employees, vendors, restructuring-related items, and income taxes. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Momentum
100
Value
49
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $84.00 · Bull $102.00 · Bear $70.00Analysis 2026-05-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $196.21
Why
Momentum100 · Δ7d +0.1
Value49 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Free cash flow fell y/y in Q3 and the 10-Q said the decline was driven by lower operating cash flow, including higher cash paid to employees, vendors, restructuring-related items, and income taxes. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
  • • GAAP operating margin was negative in Q3 and included sizable restructuring charges, so durable profitable growth still needs more proof beyond one strong quarter. [#8-K-2026-04-30]
  • • The memo still leans cautious because forward visibility is not clean.

Catalyst clock

2026-06-30

Q4 FY26 execution against raised outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
100
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.8
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+5.9
Sentiment
0
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 99.6 / Value 48.6 / Sentiment 0.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-12. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$84.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$70.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$40.08B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
253.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-765.3
P/S (TTM)
7.42
P/FCF (TTM)
27.81
Rev YoY
+27.6%
EPS YoY
-703.7%
Gross Margin
+85.3%
Op Margin
+4.2%
Net Debt
-$6.6M
Current Ratio
0.76
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data