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TD

Toronto-Dominion BankD
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained NIM improvement, contained provisions and successful U.S. execution push EPS higher and trigger multiple re-rating toward the bull target.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.
What can break
Credit-cycle deterioration and elevated provisions
Momentum
70
Value
44
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $105.00 · Bull $120.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-01-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $135.20
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +1.2
Value44 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +4.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit-cycle deterioration and elevated provisions
  • • FX and U.S. macro shocks affecting earnings translation
  • • Prolonged credit weakness, deposit-cost pressure or regulatory constraints drive higher provisions and multiple contraction toward the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-06

Q1 2026 earnings & guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+8.0
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
+3.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 69.7 / Value 43.8 / Sentiment 53.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$210.1B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
1.69B
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
3.30
P/FCF (TTM)
20.58
Rev YoY
-23.0%
EPS YoY
-59.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+17.0%
Net Debt
$193.98B
Current Ratio
0.54
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data