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TD

Toronto-Dominion BankD
NYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Sustained NIM improvement, contained provisions and successful U.S. execution push EPS higher and trigger multiple re-rating toward the bull target.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Credit-cycle deterioration and elevated provisions
Momentum
81
Value
43
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $105.00 · Bull $120.00 · Bear $82.00Analysis 2026-01-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $133.67
Why
Momentum81 · Δ7d +17.8
Value43 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -2.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit-cycle deterioration and elevated provisions
  • • FX and U.S. macro shocks affecting earnings translation
  • • Prolonged credit weakness, deposit-cost pressure or regulatory constraints drive higher provisions and multiple contraction toward the bear target.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-06

Q1 2026 earnings & guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
81
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+17.8
Δ21d
+7.3
Value
43
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
-12.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 81.1 / Value 43.4 / Sentiment 44.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$210.61B
Beta
0.89
Shares Out
1.69B
P/E (TTM)
11.5
P/S (TTM)
3.30
P/FCF (TTM)
20.58
Rev YoY
-23.0%
EPS YoY
-59.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+17.0%
Net Debt
$193.98B
Current Ratio
0.54
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data