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TCBK

TriCo BancsharesC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q3 EPS beat the $1.09 consensus cited by Associated Press, while loans and deposits grew sequentially and the net interest margin expanded. Sustained operating performance plus merger approval could support a higher FHB-linked value.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.2.
What can break
A $1.9 million Q3 benefit from credit losses may not recur; reserve or credit deterioration would weaken the earnings interpretation. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
Momentum
48
Value
53
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $54.00 · Bull $60.00 · Bear $46.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $57.84
Why
Momentum48 · Δ7d +3.8
Value53 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -13.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A $1.9 million Q3 benefit from credit losses may not recur; reserve or credit deterioration would weaken the earnings interpretation. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
  • • Fixed-ratio consideration exposes TCBK holders to FHB share-price declines before closing. Joint SEC proxy
  • • TCBK fell despite the earnings beat.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

October 29 merger votes

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
48
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+3.8
Δ21d
+3.2
Value
53
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.2
Δ21d
-23.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 48.0 / Value 52.7 / Sentiment 58.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$54.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.68B
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
31.97M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
3.77
P/FCF (TTM)
21.20
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
+27.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+33.9%
Net Debt
-$76.79M
Current Ratio
0.03
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data