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TCBK

TriCo BancsharesB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat, 4.11% NIM, and strong sequential loan growth support a cautiously constructive operating thesis. Management also expects potential benefits from the proposed First Hawaiian combination, but synergies remain unproven.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
What can break
Deposit growth may not keep pace with loan growth, increasing funding sensitivity.
Momentum
33
Value
59
Sentiment
74
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $62.21 · Bull $68.00 · Bear $50.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $64.51
Why
Momentum33 · Δ7d -0.3
Value59 · Δ7d +8.1
Sentiment74 · Δ7d -0.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposit growth may not keep pace with loan growth, increasing funding sensitivity.
  • • Detailed Q2 credit-quality metrics and post-earnings analyst estimate revisions remain unavailable.
  • • Deposit balances declined, capital return may be constrained by the merger, and funding or integration execution could weaken the benefit of loan growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-23

Q2 earnings beat with margin and loan momentum

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
33
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.5
Value
59
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+8.1
Sentiment
74
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+5.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 33.3 / Value 59.4 / Sentiment 74.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$62.21
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.84B
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
31.97M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
3.77
P/FCF (TTM)
21.20
Rev YoY
+4.3%
EPS YoY
+27.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+33.9%
Net Debt
-$76.79M
Current Ratio
0.03
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data