B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TARS
TarsusCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company-source earnings update strengthens the commercial thesis: XDEMVY sales reached $173.9 million, ECP prescribing depth improved, guidance was raised, and the Alkeus agreement adds a late-stage retina asset. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819790/000181979026000063/exhibit991tarsus862026.htm)
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.
What can break
R&D expense more than doubled year over year as pipeline investment increased, while the earnings release did not provide a verified cash-runway assessment in the available excerpt. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819790/000181979026000063/exhibit991tarsus862026.htm)
Momentum
91
Value
49
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $75.00 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $98.22
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d +1.5
Value49 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +0.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • R&D expense more than doubled year over year as pipeline investment increased, while the earnings release did not provide a verified cash-runway assessment in the available excerpt. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819790/000181979026000063/exhibit991tarsus862026.htm)
- • Recent open-market sales by the CEO and directors are a negative sentiment input but do not establish operating deterioration. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-22](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819790/000182767226000009/wk-form4_1782158996.xml)
- • The post-print share reaction was negative despite strong reported sales, while the Alkeus transaction introduces acquisition, financing, dilution, and execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
Post-earnings digestion of raised XDEMVY outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
+24.9
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-9.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 90.6 / Value 49.4 / Sentiment 59.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.1B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
43.88M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-44.4
P/S (TTM)
9.25
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
54.54
Rev YoY
+69.4%
EPS YoY
-11.0%
Gross Margin
+93.3%
Op Margin
-8.0%
Net Debt
-$334.79M
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data