B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$95.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TARS
TarsusBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The company-source earnings update strengthens the commercial thesis: XDEMVY sales reached $173.9 million, ECP prescribing depth improved, guidance was raised, and the Alkeus agreement adds a late-stage retina asset. #SEC-8K-2026-08-06
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.3.
What can break
R&D expense more than doubled year over year as pipeline investment increased, while the earnings release did not provide a verified cash-runway assessment in the available excerpt. #SEC-8K-2026-08-06
Momentum
67
Value
49
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $75.00 · Bull $95.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-03 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-03 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-03
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-03
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-03. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $98.89
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d +18.2
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -3.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • R&D expense more than doubled year over year as pipeline investment increased, while the earnings release did not provide a verified cash-runway assessment in the available excerpt. #SEC-8K-2026-08-06
- • Recent open-market sales by the CEO and directors are a negative sentiment input but do not establish operating deterioration. #SEC-FORM4-2026-06-22
- • The post-print share reaction was negative despite strong reported sales, while the Alkeus transaction introduces acquisition, financing, dilution, and execution risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-11
Post-earnings digestion of raised XDEMVY outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
67
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.2
Δ21d
-3.4
Value
49
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
66
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.3
Δ21d
-2.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 66.7 / Value 48.8 / Sentiment 66.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-11-03
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-03
Market Cap
$3.58B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
49.3M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-45.7
P/S (TTM)
9.25
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
56.11
Rev YoY
+69.4%
EPS YoY
-11.0%
Gross Margin
+93.3%
Op Margin
-8.0%
Net Debt
-$334.79M
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-11-03 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data