B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
SWBI
Smith Wesson BrandsDNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bull case: cost savings and margin recovery, plus multiple expansion, lift the price to the bull target (≈+60% from anchor) as demand stabilizes.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.5.
What can break
Failure to execute cost-savings initiatives
Momentum
31
Value
61
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.00 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-01-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $17.25
Why
Momentum31 · Δ7d +8.1
Value61 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment39 · Δ7d -9.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Failure to execute cost-savings initiatives
- • Material adverse legal judgments or litigation costs
- • Bear case: weak demand, regulatory setbacks, or execution failures compress margins and multiples, pushing price toward the bear target (≈-40% from anchor).
Catalyst clock
2026-04-03
Quarterly earnings announcement (Q4/FY)
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
31
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.1
Δ21d
+1.2
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.9
Sentiment
39
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.5
Δ21d
+5.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 30.8 / Value 61.0 / Sentiment 38.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$634.48M
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
44.84M
P/E (TTM)
45.6
P/S (TTM)
0.97
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
9.56
Rev YoY
+26.7%
EPS YoY
+63.9%
Gross Margin
+26.9%
Op Margin
+5.6%
Net Debt
$19.79M
Current Ratio
3.20
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data