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SVCO

Silvaco GroupC
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 provides concrete evidence of improving operating leverage and product momentum: strong growth, renewed non-GAAP operating profitability, record IP activity, strategic partnerships, and a large pipeline. Successful FTCO, AI, and SIP conversion could support substantial upside.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.8.
What can break
Convertible financing may create dilution or require stockholder approval under Nasdaq-cap rules.
Momentum
4
Value
35
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.50 · Bull $10.50 · Bear $4.50Analysis 2026-09-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.17
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d +0.9
Value35 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment75 · Δ7d -14.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -14.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Convertible financing may create dilution or require stockholder approval under Nasdaq-cap rules.
  • • Director/10% owner open-market sale indicates an additional sentiment overhang but is not evidence of operating performance [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-11].
  • • The strongest forward claims remain management expectations rather than demonstrated recurring cash-flow performance.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-06

Q2 profitability and IP acceleration strengthen the turnaround case

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
4
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-0.2
Value
35
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.8
Δ21d
-14.7
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 4.3 / Value 35.1 / Sentiment 75.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$249.06M
Beta
-
Shares Out
33.89M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.3
P/S (TTM)
2.14
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.69
Rev YoY
+47.8%
EPS YoY
-65.3%
Gross Margin
+80.5%
Op Margin
-28.4%
Net Debt
-$11.99M
Current Ratio
1.69
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data