SUPN

SupernusA

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

Quote time unavailable

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$62.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$50.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

25%

Probability

Target price

$34.00

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-09-04

AI commentary

Recent news tone is positive following Q2 growth, raised guidance, and the Indivior merger announcement. The official release also confirms ongoing CNS pipeline programs, but near-term clinical readout timing is limited. Social, options, short-interest, employee, and analyst-revision data are unavailable; the stored analyst target lacks a count. At the $43.97 anchor, the setup is positive but best treated as monitoring-oriented rather than high-conviction.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-04

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-12-03catalystCommercial momentum and raised FY2026 guidanceMedium impact

Q2 revenue rose 32% year over year to $219.1 million, while four growth products rose 52% to $175.7 million. Qelbree sales increased 15%, ONAPGO sales reached $13.5 million, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance. Follow-through must be weighed against legacy-product declines and mixed earnings quality. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]

2027-09-04eventIndivior merger approvals and closingHigh impact

The proposed all-stock merger with Indivior would create a scaled CNS-focused company and targets approximately $125 million of annual cost synergies. Closing is targeted for Q4 2026, subject to shareholder, regulatory, and customary conditions. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]

2027-09-04catalystONAPGO second-supplier regulatory pathHigh impact

Supernus remains on track to submit an FDA filing for a second ONAPGO supplier in Q3 2026, with potential approval by mid-2027. The path could improve supply flexibility and support longer-term commercial growth, but timing and approval remain uncertain. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03]

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-09-04 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology