B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SUPN
SupernusCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Both shareholder approvals remove a major merger hurdle. Supernus reported strong Q2 growth-product sales, while the combination offers scale and potential cost savings if it closes and is integrated successfully.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
Merger closing remains subject to regulatory and customary conditions despite both shareholder votes; the expected November 2 date is not a completion announcement.
Momentum
47
Value
55
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $41.00 · Bull $47.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-10-17; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-17 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $58.33
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -23.5
Value55 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Merger closing remains subject to regulatory and customary conditions despite both shareholder votes; the expected November 2 date is not a completion announcement.
- • ONAPGO second-supplier filing and approval timing remain unconfirmed in the reviewed evidence.
- • Closing can still be delayed, the share consideration fluctuates with INDV, and integration or debt-funded transaction costs may erode expected benefits.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · AMC
Indivior merger closing
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-23.5
Δ21d
-12.2
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
-26.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 47.3 / Value 55.5 / Sentiment 57.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-17. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-17 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$2.38B
Beta
0.71
Shares Out
58.22M
P/E (TTM)
49.8
P/S (TTM)
4.16
P/FCF (TTM)
40.04
Rev YoY
+32.4%
EPS YoY
-353.1%
Gross Margin
+75.8%
Op Margin
-7.7%
Net Debt
-$267.69M
Current Ratio
2.08
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data