B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$148.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SUI
Sun CommunitiesBNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest fresh evidence is the Q1 2026 operating print: same-property NOI grew faster than prior first-quarter guidance, occupancy held at a high level, and management raised full-year Core FFO and North America same-property NOI guidance [#8-K-2026-04-27]. That supports a cautious positive view on earnings quality.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
What can break
Acquisition, development, and integration execution remains a risk even after the portfolio simplification, especially if capital is redeployed into lower-return uses [#10-K-2026-02-25].
Momentum
63
Value
54
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $140.00 · Bull $148.00 · Bear $118.00Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-26 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $135.76
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +14.3
Value54 · Δ7d -
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -1.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-26 · AMC.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition, development, and integration execution remains a risk even after the portfolio simplification, especially if capital is redeployed into lower-return uses [#10-K-2026-02-25].
- • Insurance, real estate tax, and utility cost inflation can offset revenue gains and compress same-property NOI [#10-K-2026-02-25].
- • The market's initial reaction was muted to negative despite the guide raise, suggesting some good news was already embedded.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-26 · AMC
Q1 2026 print raised full-year guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.3
Δ21d
+22.2
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-24.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 62.6 / Value 53.5 / Sentiment 59.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$14.65B
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
121.8M
P/E (TTM)
15.1
P/S (TTM)
5.91
P/FCF (TTM)
50.02
Rev YoY
-4.0%
EPS YoY
-177.6%
Gross Margin
+14.9%
Op Margin
+4.0%
Net Debt
$3.67B
Current Ratio
0.54
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data