B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$148.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SUI
Sun CommunitiesCNYSE / Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest fresh evidence is the Q1 2026 operating print: same-property NOI grew faster than prior first-quarter guidance, occupancy held at a high level, and management raised full-year Core FFO and North America same-property NOI guidance [#8-K-2026-04-27]. That supports a cautious positive view on earnings quality.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.0.
What can break
Acquisition, development, and integration execution remains a risk even after the portfolio simplification, especially if capital is redeployed into lower-return uses [#10-K-2026-02-25].
Momentum
50
Value
53
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $140.00 · Bull $148.00 · Bear $118.00Analysis 2026-04-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $138.94
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d +0.8
Value53 · Δ7d -
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +10.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Acquisition, development, and integration execution remains a risk even after the portfolio simplification, especially if capital is redeployed into lower-return uses [#10-K-2026-02-25].
- • Insurance, real estate tax, and utility cost inflation can offset revenue gains and compress same-property NOI [#10-K-2026-02-25].
- • The market's initial reaction was muted to negative despite the guide raise, suggesting some good news was already embedded.
Catalyst clock
2026-04-27
Q1 2026 print raised full-year guidance
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
50
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+1.6
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.0
Δ21d
+4.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 50.1 / Value 53.3 / Sentiment 66.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$140.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$118.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$14.78B
Beta
0.91
Shares Out
121.8M
P/E (TTM)
15.1
P/S (TTM)
5.91
P/FCF (TTM)
50.02
Rev YoY
-4.0%
EPS YoY
-177.6%
Gross Margin
+14.9%
Op Margin
+4.0%
Net Debt
$3.67B
Current Ratio
0.54
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data