B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STAA
STAAR SurgicalCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best current bull evidence is still the company's own April 8 preliminary update: first-quarter 2026 net sales above $90 million, majority driven by China with continued double-digit Americas growth, plus expected meaningful adjusted EBITDA improvement and distributor inventory back in targeted range [#8-K-2026-04-08]. March materials also argued 2026 should show growth, profit expansion, and innovation progress if execution holds [#IR-2026-03-03].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
Actual Q1 2026 results are still pending as of May 9, 2026, so preliminary sales and margin commentary could still be refined in the formal release.
Momentum
13
Value
48
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $33.00 · Bear $16.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $28.44
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d +2.7
Value48 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Actual Q1 2026 results are still pending as of May 9, 2026, so preliminary sales and margin commentary could still be refined in the formal release.
- • China remains the core swing factor; a renewed slowdown in refractive demand or weaker distributor discipline could reverse the current recovery narrative.
- • The main bear counter is that as of May 9, 2026 the actual first-quarter earnings release has not yet occurred; STAAR's official investor-relations notice says results are due after the market close on May 13, 2026, so post-print analyst revisions, consensus surprise data, and full earnings drivers are still unavailable [#IR-2026-05-04].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-13
First-quarter 2026 results now scheduled for May 13, 2026
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
-2.0
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+11.4
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+4.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 13.2 / Value 47.8 / Sentiment 62.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.21B
Beta
1.07
Shares Out
50.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-14.8
P/S (TTM)
5.16
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-172.94
Rev YoY
+111.0%
EPS YoY
-146.1%
Gross Margin
+74.8%
Op Margin
+18.0%
Net Debt
-$149.18M
Current Ratio
4.66
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data