SST

System1D

NYSE / Media & Entertainment

At close

2026-06-02

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

30%

Probability

Target price

$4.75

+34.6% vs current

Most likely

Base case

50%

Probability

Target price

$3.25

-7.9% vs current

B-

Bear case

20%

Probability

Target price

$1.75

-50.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-05-29

AI commentary

Coverage is sparse and company-driven. The May 12 print was better on adjusted EBITDA and product traction, but the post-release bid faded back toward the pre-print level by late May, so the move did not hold. There is no fresh analyst revision set in the packet, so the $8.00 target should be treated as a thin high-end reference rather than consensus; social, options, short-interest, and employee sentiment inputs are not available here.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-05-29

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-05-12eventQ1 2026 reset showed operating improvement, but the turnaround is still incomplete [#8-K-2026-05-12] [#10-Q-2026-05-12]High impact

System1 reported $37.2M revenue, $23.3M GAAP gross profit, and $2.7M adjusted EBITDA, while MapQuest posted 14% organic traffic growth and 23% site-wide revenue growth. Those positives were offset by a $57.6M net loss and a $36.8M impairment, so the print supports a better operating tone without fully de-risking the story.

2026-12-31catalystProduct monetization has to improve for the AI/product mix to re-rate [#10-K-2026-03-11] [#8-K-2026-05-12]High impact

The 2025 10-K showed Products revenue up 16% as sessions rose to 2.2B, but Products RPS stayed flat at $0.04. If MapQuest and Startpage feature work plus lower search-marketing spend eventually lift monetization per session, the equity can re-rate, but that remains a longer-dated proof point.

2027-01-27catalystRefinancing remains the main near-term swing factor [#10-Q-2026-05-12] [#10-K-2026-03-11]High impact

At March 31, 2026, System1 had $51.5M of cash, negative net working capital of $14.1M, a $50.0M revolver due January 27, 2027, and $252.6M of term debt due in July 2027. Management said it continues to explore refinancing and cannot conclude the plan is probable, so any progress or setback on liquidity can move the stock sharply.

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-05-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology