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SPCE

Virgin GalacticC
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Successful Q3 testing and Q4 spaceflight, combined with declining operating expenses and a workable liquidity bridge, could reduce pre-revenue skepticism and support a rerating.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.6.
What can break
Debt management and future capital requirements remain material despite the June exchange.
Momentum
86
Value
34
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.10 · Bull $4.10 · Bear $1.60Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.56
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d -13.0
Value34 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -4.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Debt management and future capital requirements remain material despite the June exchange.
  • • Peer support is loose and analyst coverage is limited.
  • • Testing or flight delays, continued cash burn, equity issuance, or weaker-than-expected Q2 commentary could pressure the shares before commercial operations begin.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-12

Q2 2026 results remain the next near-term volatility event

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.0
Δ21d
+22.4
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
+11.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 86.5 / Value 34.2 / Sentiment 62.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$4.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$3.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$474.5M
Beta
2.21
Shares Out
151.6M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-0.6
P/S (TTM)
123.66
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.59
Rev YoY
-67.0%
EPS YoY
-65.8%
Gross Margin
-10646.5%
Op Margin
-24587.8%
Net Debt
$36.92M
Current Ratio
1.62
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data