B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SNDA
Sonida Senior LivingDNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The setup is fundamentally a scale-and-execution story: Sonida closed a transformative merger that more than doubled its owned footprint, while pre-merger 2025 results still showed 5.9% same-store RevPAR growth, a 90 bps same-store occupancy gain and 8.0% same-store NOI growth [#10-K-2026-03-12][#IR-2026-03-11]. If the first combined quarters show stable integration and financing progress, the market can support a higher multiple on a larger private-pay senior-housing platform.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
What can break
Bridge loan refinancing or property-level financing takes longer or comes at worse terms than hoped.
Momentum
19
Value
42
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $32.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $24.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-05 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-30 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-30
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $49.50
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +4.9
Value42 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +1.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Bridge loan refinancing or property-level financing takes longer or comes at worse terms than hoped.
- • Labor, operating expense inflation, or underperforming assets offset occupancy and rate gains.
- • This remains low-coverage and execution-heavy.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05 · BMO
First quarter with CHP included in reported results
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
-13.2
Value
42
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
47
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.5
Δ21d
+1.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 18.6 / Value 42.0 / Sentiment 46.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$24.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-30
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-30
Market Cap
$1.65B
Beta
0.82
Shares Out
48.05M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.1
P/S (TTM)
1.70
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-13.79
Rev YoY
+122.0%
EPS YoY
+218.1%
Gross Margin
+6.4%
Op Margin
-10.7%
Net Debt
$659.4M
Current Ratio
0.88
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data