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SMTC

SemtechC
Nasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print materially exceeded the packet's pre-earnings expectations, while management paired record revenue with higher margins and a strong Q3 outlook. Management also cited accelerating bookings and record backlog, supporting the thesis that AI-data-center connectivity is becoming a larger earnings driver.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
14 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
AI and data-center demand concentration could amplify semiconductor cyclicality and downside in an industry downturn.
Momentum
95
Value
48
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
14 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $165.00 · Bull $195.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $209.29
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +5.6
Value48 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -21.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 14 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -21.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • AI and data-center demand concentration could amplify semiconductor cyclicality and downside in an industry downturn.
  • • Pending cellular-module divestiture and acquisition integration create execution and portfolio-optimization risk; debt and covenant constraints remain relevant. [#IR-2026-08-25]
  • • The stock has already reacted positively, so Q3 guidance and continued bookings conversion are now a higher bar.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-25

Q2 FY2027 beat with record revenue and margin expansion

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+56.9
Value
48
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.8
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.1
Δ21d
-8.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 95.0 / Value 48.2 / Sentiment 53.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$14.37B
Beta
2.02
Shares Out
93.15M
P/E (TTM)
210.7
P/S (TTM)
6.70
P/FCF (TTM)
50.07
Rev YoY
+15.9%
EPS YoY
+25.5%
Gross Margin
+51.5%
Op Margin
+10.7%
Net Debt
$327.23M
Current Ratio
2.37
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data