B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$195.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SMTC
SemtechBNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print materially exceeded the packet's pre-earnings expectations, while management paired record revenue with higher margins and a strong Q3 outlook. Management also cited accelerating bookings and record backlog, supporting the thesis that AI-data-center connectivity is becoming a larger earnings driver.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
AI and data-center demand concentration could amplify semiconductor cyclicality and downside in an industry downturn.
Momentum
72
Value
48
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $165.00 · Bull $195.00 · Bear $115.00Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $217.07
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -17.7
Value48 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • AI and data-center demand concentration could amplify semiconductor cyclicality and downside in an industry downturn.
- • Pending cellular-module divestiture and acquisition integration create execution and portfolio-optimization risk; debt and covenant constraints remain relevant. [#IR-2026-08-25]
- • The stock has already reacted positively, so Q3 guidance and continued bookings conversion are now a higher bar.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-25
Q2 FY2027 beat with record revenue and margin expansion
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-17.7
Δ21d
-21.4
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+35.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 72.1 / Value 47.5 / Sentiment 66.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$115.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$12.76B
Beta
2.02
Shares Out
93.33M
P/E (TTM)
210.7
P/S (TTM)
6.70
P/FCF (TTM)
50.07
Rev YoY
+15.9%
EPS YoY
+25.5%
Gross Margin
+51.5%
Op Margin
+10.7%
Net Debt
$327.23M
Current Ratio
2.37
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data